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The case for fossil fuels and CCS
Calls are being made among some sectors of New Zealand to ban some or all coal, lignite, oil and gas development in New Zealand. A key argument is that the world cannot continue to burn fossil fuels if the climate is to be stabilised at +2 degrees (or at 450ppm carbon dioxide equivalent).
Such a ban in New Zealand cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future, a reality recognised in the NZ Energy Strategy.
As for the goal of + 2 degrees stabilisation, the UNFCCC accepts that this will be a tall order on current global commitments.
With revelations that fracking technology could push back Peak Oil by a generation, the implications for the world's climate are serious, in light of the snail's pace at which a new international climate change agreement will be negotiated.
In endorsing a target of 90% renewable electricity generation by 2025, the New Zealand Government accepts there will be a gap, and that it will be filled principally by coal and gas. In the realm of transport fuel there are no ready substitutes for oil and gas. For this reason, the Strategy prioritises security of supply, and affordability, as well as the development of energy resources.
As well, fossil fuels are used in New Zealand the dairy, wood, timber, and food processing industries, horticulture, and the cement and steel making industries. Here, there are no ready substitutes for fossil fuels.
The need for fossil fuels is also a global issue, where the renewable electricity generation average level is 20-30% (ref. 16). (Contrast that figure with New Zealand’s 74% currently (ref. 17).) The world has a long way to go in eliminating fossil fuels, and the trend is in the wrong direction.
The International Energy Agency has reported that 47% of new electricity generation in the last decade is based on coal (ref. 18). In 2009 coal accounted for 41% of global electricity generation. The reason is simple; coal is relatively cheap and available. It will be used while there still is coal, regardless of whether or not New Zealand bans coal and other fossil fuels.
To place New Zealand further into context. Total domestic coal production is some 5 million tonnes a year (ref. 19), much of it exported as coking coal for steel-making. The world’s single largest coal mine, in Wyoming, produces 20 times that amount (ref. 20). China alone uses around 3 billion tonnes of coal a year (600 times NZ production). World annual consumption is around 5 billion tonnes. Global reserves of easy-access coal total close to 1 trillion tonnes.
If that were not enough context, consider the Australian State of Victoria: its electricity generation is roughly of the same order of New Zealand, except that it is around 90% non-renewable. To turn this statistic around, Victoria would need wind and water, resources in short supply there and elsewhere in Australia. what Victoria does have is lignite, a resource 25 times the size of New Zealand's.
If it cannot wean itself of fossil fuels over the next 20 or 30 years, the world will very clearly have to do something other than attempt to ban coal mining, in New Zealand or anywhere else.
As matters stand, China is projected to account for 40% of global GHG emissions by 2030, with Kyoto Protocol members accounting for around 20%. The UNFCCC process faces huge hurdles in developing a meaningful international agreement by 2020.
Facced with these challenges, Straterra believes CCS must form an inevitable part of the mix of policies and technologies to be deployed, if the world is to mitigate CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
Even as the world moves to a lower-carbon path, coal will still be needed for steel-making; there is no commercial-scale, alternative technology. Given that steel is essential to making wind turbines, and most other renewable energy technologies, the case for CCS becomes particularly compelling.
We hold this view despite allegations that CCS will not deliver (ref. 21), and despite the many challenges to large-scale uptake and deployment of CCS, in New Zealand, and around the world. We are encouraged by the IEA view that CCS could address 19% of global emissions by 2050 (ref. 22).
Also encouraging is Scotland's intention to have all coal-fired electricity plants using CCS by 2025, reported by Reuters.
Return to Straterra's page on CCS here
(16) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2010
(17) NZ Govt press release, 17 August 2011. View here
(18) IEA (2011). View here
(20) Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, seminar on the future of coal. 17 May 2011. Te Papa, Wellington
(21) Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (2011). Lignite and climate change: the high cost of low-grade coal
(22) IEA (2010). Progress of CCS must be speeded up. Carbon Capture Journal
Coal and CCS
Coal fuelled the Industrial Revolution from the late 1700s. It continues to fuel economic growth today. With close to 1 trillion tonnes of easy-access coal available, the world will be burning this incredible source of energy and carbon for many decades to come, if not centuries.
Five-sixths of the world's population have on average one-tenth the standard of living of an OECD country. Very reasonably, they would like to have what we have - and they are proceeding to get it, at speed.
While China leads the world in renewables, its greenhouse gas emissions are increasing by the level of Australia's every year. A generation ago, China was using one-quarter of the steel used in the OECD. Its steel consumption today exceeds that of OECD countries combined. China is also the world's biggest steel maker. To make steel, you need coal. and that's just China. India, Korea, and a host of other countries are heading in the same direction.
Faced with statistics like these, CCS will become an inevitable part of the mix of policies worldwide to reduce or offset carbon emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, CCS could address 19% of global emissions by 2050. Given that this would entail thousands of CCS schemes operating by that date, there is much work ahead to enable CCS deployment at scale.